Article Update - It appears the story of Abraham Wald creating a diagram of the plane is not true. According to Tim Harford in The Data Detective (p. 110 of the hardcover edition), Wald “produced a research document full of complex technical analysis.” But never created a plane diagram like the one shown on this post. Survivor bias is real, but the specifics of this story, while originally sourced, have not held up. Part of the issue is that Wald died in a plane crash in 1950. His research was declassified many years later and likely misunderstood. I’m leaving up the post, but I wanted to update it for full transparency. - Trevor
When data gives the wrong solution
When data gives the wrong solution
When data gives the wrong solution
Article Update - It appears the story of Abraham Wald creating a diagram of the plane is not true. According to Tim Harford in The Data Detective (p. 110 of the hardcover edition), Wald “produced a research document full of complex technical analysis.” But never created a plane diagram like the one shown on this post. Survivor bias is real, but the specifics of this story, while originally sourced, have not held up. Part of the issue is that Wald died in a plane crash in 1950. His research was declassified many years later and likely misunderstood. I’m leaving up the post, but I wanted to update it for full transparency. - Trevor